Projected futures for the consumption of metals and non-metallic minerals

While material resources form a critical foundation for human society, their extraction, processing, and use are also a major driver of environmental pressures. Understanding future material consumption is therefore vital. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of future global bulk material consumption, covering metals (steel, aluminium, copper) and non-metallic minerals (cement, sand, limestone, clay). We use the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE, combined with a stock-driven dynamic material flow analysis model, to provide full coverage of global and regional material flows. We project material consumption for a current-policy baseline, a climate policy scenario (1.5 °C) and two scenarios that add resource efficiency measures on top of the climate policies. Following current policies, by 2050 consumption of steel, aluminium, copper are expected to increase by 25%, 97%, and 84% respectively. Cement, sand, limestone and clay increase by 5%–23%. The climate policy scenario shows increases compared to baseline across all metals and cement, especially in the 2030/2040 period driven by required electricity and vehicle system transformations. The largest relative increase is projected for copper and aluminium, i.e. 22% and 9%, compared to current policies in 2050. Combining climate policies and resource efficiency, however, can reduce the use of non-metallic minerals below current levels and stabilize steel consumption, thus enabling growth in housing, transport, and decarbonized electricity systems. The most effective measures are related to efficiency and sufficiency measures (such as building with less material and reducing floor space). Although copper and aluminium consumption continue to rise across all scenarios, this can be significantly limited by resource efficiency measures. Overall, our findings highlight that resource efficiency policies are critical to managing the additional material consumption induced by climate policy.