CIRCOMOD partners’ new Nature Communications paper on circular transition of aggregates in China
We are delighted to share that Dr. Meng Jiang (NTNU), Paul Behrens (Leiden University), Edgar Hertwich (NTNU) and their international colleagues have co-authored a new paper published in Nature Communications: Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China
Understanding the material future of the construction sector
The study offers a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the past, present, and future of construction aggregates — sand, gravel, and crushed stone — in China, which currently represents around half of global consumption.
Using the newly developed CHAMPS model, the authors trace provincial-level material flows from 1978 to 2020 and project trends to 2050 under various circular economy scenarios.
Their findings show that China’s demand for aggregates peaked around 2015 and is expected to decline to about 50% of 2020 levels by 2030. This signals a potential turning point in global material use and offers valuable insights into how economies can transition from expansion to circularity.
Circular pathways and regional dynamics
The paper explores the potential to scale up recycled aggregates, which could increase from 4% of total demand in 2021 to nearly half by 2050 if circular strategies are implemented nationwide.
The results highlight the need for regionally differentiated approaches, as aggregate demand, recycling infrastructure, and construction intensity vary widely across China’s 31 provinces.
This regional perspective aligns closely with CIRCOMOD’s mission to model and understand how circular economy measures can reduce material demand while supporting economic and social well-being.
Implications for global circular transitions
By documenting the world’s largest aggregate economy entering a phase of declining demand, the study contributes essential evidence to CIRCOMOD’s research agenda on circular economy modeling and material system transformation.
“Our findings show that material demand can decline in step with economic maturity — opening opportunities for a more circular, resource-efficient future,” says Dr. Meng Jiang. “China’s experience provides valuable lessons for other rapidly developing regions.”
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